Infectious Disease
| In recent years, officials of the World Health Organization and national medical institutes across the globe have witnessed rapid outbreaks in a number of highly pathogenic strains of H5N1 Avian Influenza. Transmission has occurred both between birds and from birds to humans. Yet, according to these same officials, the realistic prospect that slight mutations will precipitate human-to-human transmission raises the grave spectre of a potentially deadly pandemic, in a worse-case scenario potentially threatening the lives of some 100 to 150 million people worldwide. According to estimates, well over 2/3 of all individuals infected with H5N1 will die, and the attendant psychological and societal ramifications of even a less severe outbreak could seriously frustrate of transportation systems, overload medical institutions, and destabilize considerable portions of the economy. As the transnational movement of populations through the modern international transportation infrastructure expands, prospective catalysts for infectious disease transmission grows exponentially, making the threat of virulent infectious disease a growing national security concern that is unlikely to abate. And yet, despite the severity of threat, significant inadequacies in international cooperation, national detection systems, and rapid response capabilities still remain. The Transnational Crisis Project will attempt to identify these weaknesses and assist in devising for government national security plans to pre-empt, protect, and respond to potential human outbreaks of the H5N1 disease. | |
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